Non-Iranian Militia Mercenaries:
Afghan, fifteen thousand to twenty thousand; Pakistan, five thousand to ten
thousand; Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), eight thousand to ten
thousand; Iranian Regular Army, five thousand to six thousand, all estimates as
of 2016.
If Tehran uses its militias, and
other forces drafted to do Iran’s deeds, as well as its IRGC to launch attacks
on Israel, there may be war between Israel and Iran by 2019.
We asked in January if 2018 would bring revolution to Iran. Now
we ask: Will Israel and Iran go to war by 2019?
By acknowledging the legitimacy of
the National Council of Resistance of Iran, it would result in fewer actions by
Tehran to crack down on protestors, e.g., by going to war with Israel to divert
the Iranian population from domestic unrest.
The lead of the January 17 article
was CIA Director Mike Pompeo. He said, “It is my full expectation that you will
see the Iranian people continue to revolt against this [crackdown by Tehran on
protests.]
Likewise, we lead this article, with
Director Pompeo. About Israel and Iran, and North Korea, Pompeo said,
“Whether it’s Lebanese Hezbollah, the threat that it
[Iran] presents to both Lebanon and to Israel; whether it’s the Shia
militias—you can see the impact that they're having today, even in northern
Iraq; the threat that they pose to U.S. forces.” And even more to the point of
our post, Pompeo also said, “There is a long history of proliferation ties, as
between North Korea and Iran.” Proliferation partners share technology, making
it easier for both to develop ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons.”
Breaking News
Regarding 2018, direct conflict
between Israel and Iran is not only on the horizon, but happening now: interception of an Iranian drone over Israel, downing of
an Israeli F-16, and retaliatory strikes against Syrian and Iranian targets.
These converging events are opening scenes of a wider war—if Tehran continues
trying to fortify its presence in Syria after the defeat of Islamic State.
See the
threat by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Iranian foreign minister
Mohammad Javad Zarif: “Bibi” said, “Do not test Israel’s resolve,” at the
Munich Security Conference on February 18. Zarif has also made threats. He warned Iran would respond “seriously,” if its
“interests are not secured.”
Growing tensions between Israel and
Iran, show few signs of warmth and may heat up further between 2018 and 2019.
But will the countries go to war? And what would this mean for regional peace
and security?
The Israeli army’s February 10
announcement that it launched a “large-scale attack” inside Syria on Saturday
to target aerial-defense batteries and sites it said
were linked to Iran, after one of its aircraft crashed under Syria antiaircraft
fire, is a further reminder of the Islamic Republic’s malign regional activities.
There is the
“latest sign of rapidly warming relations between estranged neighbors,” North
Korea’s Kim Jong-un extended a February 10 invitation to his counterpart in the
South—President Moon Jae-in—to commence talks in Pyongyang, just as the 2018
Winter Olympics got underway.
The Backstory
President Donald Trump first placed
Tehran on notice for engaging in regional destabilization shortly after taking
office in February 2017 and then pursued comprehensive sanctions targeting
Iranian ballistic-missile programs in July 2017.
The administration’s October 2017
decision to designate formally the IRGC, as a Foreign Terrorist
Organization—effectively blacklisting it and more than forty related entities
from the global economy—is necessary to contain the regime’s belligerence.
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