Kiev's armed forces have come a long way since 2014.
Ukraine's
Military Is Back
It
is indisputable that the main criterion for assessing the armed forces of any
country is its ability to effectively perform tasks under wartime conditions.
Nevertheless, the ability to use the defense budget as efficiently as possible
can be an equally important way of assessment—when each unit of investment can
achieve the greatest possible positive net effect. This approach is especially
useful to understand the changes that have taken place in Ukraine’s armed
forces since 2014.
Since
the start of confrontation with Russia, Ukraine’s defense spending has
increased several times. In 2013, the budget of the armed forces of Ukraine was
15.2 billion hryvnia; in 2017, this figure was 64.4 billion hryvnia. In 2018,
Ukraine has allocated a record 86.14 billion hryvnia for defense needs.
However, such a spectacular growth looks less radical if you present the
dynamics of the Ukrainian defense budget in dollar terms. Ukraine spent $1.9
billion on defense in 2013, $2.35 billion in 2017 and $3.02 billion in 2018. In
dollar terms, the military’s budget has not seen a significant increase over
the last four years.
However,
compared to early 2014, Ukraine’s armed forces have improved considerably.
First of all, the Ukrainian armed forces have grown from 157,000 (of which
120,000 were servicemen) in 2014 to 250,000 (of whom 204,000 are servicemen)
today. At the same time, in the beginning of Russian aggression, only six
thousand people—one brigade—were in complete readiness and able to execute the
political leadership’s orders. In 2013, the armed forces of Ukraine did not
conduct any training at the brigade or regimental level. In 2016, the White
Book of Ukraine’s ministry of defense logged twenty brigade-level exercises;
ground forces conducted twenty-six exercises at the brigade level in 2017.
The situation for armored
forces has similarly improved. In 2014, large numbers of tanks were inoperable.
Since then, there has been a strong drive to purchase new or modernize old
tanks and armored vehicles. The armed forces received a total of 4,142 tanks
and armored vehicles in 2014, 3,227 units in 2015 and 530 units in 2016. Today,
Ukraine has satisfied its needs for tanks and armored vehicles.
Ukraine’s air force has also qualitatively changed for the
better. Today, the air force has as many as seventy-one fully functioning
fourth-generation fighters (Su-27s and MiG-29s). The air force has also
increased the number of flying hours per crew from thirty-six to forty-six
hours per year. Between 2014 and 2017, up to sixty fighters and bombers were
modernized or repaired. Additionally, work is underway to repair air-defense systems.
By mid-2017, up to 65 percent of S-300PS/PT1s and 20 percent of Buk-M1 systems
were repaired. Today the armed forces have twenty-five divisions of the
S-300PS/PT1 systems, ten Buk-M1 divisions and one S-300V1 division.
Activities in missile development are also worth mentioning.
State trials of the Vilha system are planned for March 2018. This
surface-to-surface missile system was developed on the basis of the Smerch
multiple-launch rocket system. It will allow Ukraine’s armed forces to conduct
precision strikes as far away as 120 kilometers and serve as a replacement of
the outdated tactical missile complex Tochka-U. Development of the Neptune
antiship cruise missile is also underway. The missile’s first public tests were
conducted in January of this year. Once testing is completed, Neptune will be
deployed as a coastal missile complex, and eventually be installed on missile
boats and fighter jets.
Over the past four years, Ukraine has managed to strengthen its
defensive capabilities without a radical increase in funding. One reason for
this is that the proportions of the defense budget distribution have changed:
the share for procurement and modernization for weapons increased by 10 percent
since 2014. To understand how allocated funds are spent, it should be mentioned
that in 2013, Ukraine spent 10 percent ($190 million) of its military budget on
procurement—only got two modernized airplanes, five different radar systems,
one training complex for pilots, 194 navigation devices and twenty-eight radios!
Another reason is the development of an internal audit and control system—as
stipulated in the Strategic Defense Bulletin—which helps to effectively utilize
scarce resources. Overall, available resources are being marshalled more
efficiently. Ukraine has made more strides to eliminate gaps in combat
readiness in four years than in the previous twenty.
Mykola Bielieskov is Deputy Director of the Institute of
World Policy in Kiev, Ukraine.
Image:
Reuters
